Abstract This paper reviews the importance of modeling in policy analysis and the use of decision tree analysis. It looks at the tools available to help policy makers. The writer uses the example of Firestone tires on the Ford Explorer sports utility vehicles as an application of decision trees in decision analysis.
From the Paper "There is a large variety of tools available to help decision-makers. This paper focuses on one of these tools decision tree analysis. The consideration of the decision tree decision analysis tool begins with are view of the ..."
A look at the importance of statistical information to businesses and how it allows managers to collect, analyze, and interpret data vital to their company's success.
Abstract This paper discusses the importance of statistical information to a company's growth and success. The paper explains how a manager with statistical skills will have a significant business advantage, since business decisions are often based on inferences from data. The paper further explains the many applications of statistical tests and how the the premise for many of these tests relates to two concepts, probability and the normal distribution. Finally, the paper explains both concepts and how these concepts form the basis of most statistical tests.
From the Paper "A manager must often estimate the characteristics of a population based on information provided by a sample chosen to yield an estimate of population characteristics. Confidence intervals are a mathematical statement of the level of confidence around the estimate. Today's global businesses face dynamic and complex markets. The environments in which these enterprises compete are constantly changing. Successful firms can develop strategies that enable them to be flexible in the changing world. These are firms that manage changes instead of reacting to changes. In order for firms to become proactive in change management, they must be able to quickly analyze different strategies and the impact of different scenarios on the firm's performance. For companies in high technology industries, the dynamic and highly uncertain nature of their businesses makes rapid decision making a key for survival. Thus, it is crucial that businesses develop the capability to analyze business decisions and environments quickly without relying on costly, time-consuming studies and research."
This paper discusses the role of oracle bones, the earliest form of Chinese writing, as an important source for understanding the development of written Chinese and the Shang society.
Abstract This paper explains that, in the religion of the Shang civilization, which was based on the worship of ancestral spirits and Shang Di, the supreme God, importantdecisions were made in the ancestral temple through divination by the oracle bones. The author points out that oracle bones also were used to record astronomical events. The paper states that the character 'yue' appears quite often in the oracle bone inscriptions as a pictograph of one range of mountains above another and is the object of sacrifices.
From the Paper "The exact political status of the Huanbei Shang City is unknown, however, the walled city is probably one of the Shang capitals due to its huge size and geographic location. From traditional accounts, it was believed that the 19th king, Pan Geng, moved the capital to Yin, however, the oracle bone inscriptions from Yinxu only details the period from the reign of the 22nd king, Wu Ding to the 30th and last king of the Shang dynasty, Xin. Therefore, Yinxu probably did not become the capital until the reign of Wu Ding and Huanbei most likely was the capital of Pan Geng and the two succeeding kings. Moreover, inscribed oracle bones discovered in the area have enabled researchers to reconstruct the Shang royal genealogy. For nearly a century now, scholars have been reading the oracle bones to detail Chinese history."
Abstract The paper compares the 9 step model to the decision tree in terms of advantages and disadvantages, as well as the approach to problems presented. The paper defines what the decision tree is and looks at how, in terms of a managerial or work-related decisions, the decision trees are useful. The decision trees clearly state out different courses of action, as related to different variables and restraints that may appear. The paper looks at the advantages of using a decision tree when making a decision. By comparing the two different models, the paper concludes that the decision tree is actually part of the 9 step model as the 9 step model is more complete in its approach.
From the Paper "The decision tree starts with listing the decision that needs to be made , listed at the top of the tree. Each possible solution that can be adopted depending on different variables will form different branches of the decision tree. Each branch may carry its own ramifications, if, for example, each solution brings about new conditional variables (for example, an organization may have to decide on either launching a new product or consolidating the existing one, but launching a new product can be done either through innovation or through purchasing an existing line from a competitor). Each of the branches will have a measurable outcome, evaluated in term of cost, profitability, increase in market share etc. Each outcome will have attached an estimated probability that it will happen. Multiplying the probability with the outcome value for each node will allow us to have, in the end, a final score for each of the possible decisions and numerically evaluate the options."
Abstract This paper considers how empowerment and participative decision making improves the decision making process within organizations. It looks at downsizing efforts that empower workers and the benefits to the organization of participative decision making.
From the Paper "In recent years groups have become increasingly important in the American workplace as companies move toward fewer managers, more empowered workers and away from hierarchical organizational structures ..."
Tags:decision making, participative decision making, group decision making, empowerment
Abstract This study investigates the decision process of consumers purchasing property in Spain. The paper focuses on the underlying reasons for purchasing a property in Spain, the methods used by the purchaser to gather information and the overall satisfaction with the purchase process. The paper links a report about current theories on consumer purchasing behaviour to the purchase of property abroad.
The investigation reveals a clear link between the level of satisfaction of the purchase process and the level of information and advice sought. The paper includes flow charts, tables, and graphs. It also appends the questionnaire used in the research and data analysis pages.
Outline:
Abstract
Contents
List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Appendices
Acknowledgements
1. Introduction
1.1 Aspects and Foundation of the Research
1.2 Aim of the Research
1.3 Objectives of the Research
1.4 Hypothesis
2. Literature Review
2.1 Consumer Behaviour
2.2 The Consumer Decision Process
2.3 Problem Recognition
2.4 Information Search
2.4.1 Do Consumers Always Search Rationally?
2.4.2 Determinants of Information Search
2.4.3 Type of search
2.4.4 Evaluation of Alternatives
2.5 The Decision 2.5.1 Affect Referral Rules
2.5.2 Non Compensatory Decision Rules
2.5.3The Lexicographic Rule
2.5.4 Compensatory Decision Rules
2.5.5 Modified Rules for Research
3. Methodology
3.1 Methodology in Similar Research
3.2 Research Approach
3.3 Research Strategy
3.4 Method
3.4.1 Channels of Distribution
3.4.2 Ethics
3.4.3 Data Collection and Analysis
3.4.4 CHI-Square Test
3.4.5 Elements of Bias
3.4.6 Sampling
3.4.7 Pilot Study
3.4.8 Research Constraints
3.4.9 Response Rate
3.4.10 Variables
3.5 Null Hypothesis
4. Results
4.1 CHI Square Test
4.2 Data Interpretation
4.3 Summary of Key Findings
5. Discussion
5.1 Pre Purchase Process
5.1.1 Information Search
5.2 Purchase Process
5.3 Post Purchase Process
5.3.1 Consumer Behaviour Models
5.4 Consumer Profile
6. Conclusion
7. Recommendations and Further Research
8. References
9. Appendices
10. Glossary
From the Paper "Nicosia proposed a model that concentrated on the buying decision for a new product (illustrated in figure 2). The first stage of the model concentrated on the marketers' attempts to communicate with the consumer and the consumer's predisposition to act in a certain way. The scope of this research did not allow for the exploration of marketers' communication methods. However, the second stage of the model involved the consumer in a search evaluation process, which is influenced by attitudes. This follows a similar process to the Andreason model but it allowed the consumer to evaluate the process."
Abstract This essay explores the emotions and feelings in the decision making process. It does this by first defining what is meant by the decision making process. It then looks at emotions and feelings in consumer psychology, relating how this impacts on the decision-making process. The essay also views the role of these emotions and feelings in the decision-making process in the South African context, and discusses various ways in which emotions and feelings can be used in a marketing strategy to enhance marketing communication (i.e.: the combination of advertising, the sales force, public relations, packaging and any other technique in which that the company provides itself and its products) and a company's total product (i.e.: the entire set of characteristics involved in the marketing strategy).
From the Paper "The most perverse and influential assumption in consumer behavior research is that a decision making process precedes purchases (ie: that the consumer goes through a complex process of deciding what and where to purchase, before the actual purchasing itself). Many definitions of the decision making process exist, but most agree that two or more actions occur within it and, therefore, choice must occur. In addition, individual consumer's "evaluative criteria" facilitate the forecasting of each alternative's consequences for the consumer's goals or objectives. Further, the chosen alternative is determined by an evaluative procedure, and information sought from external sources or retrieved from memory is processed in the application of this evaluation process (Olshavsky & Granbois, 1991). Interestingly, there is evidence that a significant proportion of purchases may not be preceded by a decision process, and that for many purchases, a decision process never occurs."
Abstract This paper is on group decisions in communicating. Group decision communicating often consists of orientation, conflict, emergence, and reinforcement. Decision-emergence theory is an explanation of the complex communication process that groups go through in doing any projects. These steps often make or break the group.
Abstract This paper points out that all businesses require a great deal of decision-making and that successful decisions are vital to the success of a business. It then examines a systematic approach to the decision- making process which companies can use to determine their best course of action.
From the Paper "The practice of business is the practice of making decisions. How many are needed for the sale staff? How do we best position our product in the market? What should our advertising strategy be? If we downsize, will it increase profits? The use of "Decision Science" attempts to provide a framework through which business managers can evaluate multiple possible courses of actions and generate plans well suited to their current needs and future goals and plans."
Abstract This paper studies how organizations make decisions regarding logistics procurement. The author begins with a case study of the British government's budget for defense systems, critiquing it from the perspective of organizational decision-making. The paper then extrapolates from this study a larger thesis about organizations and their process of making procurement decisions.
From the Paper "The annual cost of logistics acquisition for England's national defense has been estimated to equal the yearly turnover at the London stock exchange which is quite an amount. Although the expense is believed necessary to keep the nation's armed services "fully equipped and ready to act anytime in war or peace," it was found that a huge cutback on the defense spending is possible with a more judicious procurement method and a studied decision-making process to go with it."
Abstract This paper discusses the basis of ethical decision-making, and what factors might affect the process. It discusses the various aspects of ethical decision-making, and the setting or rules and criteria before problems arise. The paper also investigates how people come to ethical decisions, and why and how rules are broken to reach ethical outcomes.
From the Paper "Ethical decision-making in the business world has received a great deal of interest in the last decade from public interest groups, political and religious leaders and from the general public who have become aware of the many cases of unethical business ..."
Abstract This paper looks at the relationship between individual decisions of members of a group and the collective decision of the group from the perspective of social psychology. More specifically, the paper analyzes how groups shape perceptions and attitudes of individual members and the consequences/influence that has on decisions.
From the Paper "Baron and Norbert have noted that groups have a crucial role to play in human affairs. Groups are said to shape perceptions and attitudes, provide support in times of stress and or distress, affect human performance both positively and negatively and influence decision-making. The influence of groups on human decision-making has long been a strong focus of social psychology. In particular, social psychologists have investigated for relationships between individual decisions of group members and the collective decision produced by the..."
Abstract The paper describes the pros and cons of making decisions in a team context. It argues that culture of corporation must support employee empowerment and autonomy and non-authoritarian leadership and innovation in order that the team decision making to be effective.
Tags: work, teams, decision, making, Vroom-Yetton, model
Abstract This paper explains the way personal, organizational and cultural values affect decisions in personal and professional lives. The author points out that, in turn, personal values are influenced by cultural and organizational values.
From the Paper "Every individual makes decisions every day. Some are minor decisions that have little long-term effect on our lives such as what to have for breakfast or which clothes to wear. Other decisions affect our companies, such as which products to market, or have significant impact on our personal lives, such as whether to purchase a house. There are many different aids to assist us in making decisions whether economic tools when making financial choices or decision support tools when making business decisions. Yet, ..."
Tags: personal values, organizational values, cultural values, decision making process, decisions
Abstract In this paper, the writer shows that Michael Lipsky identifies the primary area in which government bureaucrats have discretionary decision-making power. The writer looks at the processes upon which bureaucratic decision-making is heavily reliant.
From the Paper "In his analysis, Michael Lipsky identifies the primary area in which government bureaucrats have discretionary decision-making power. Bureaucrats exercise discretion in decisions about citizens with whom they interact. Over time the sum total of the exercise of this discretion and the decisions made by these bureaucrats becomes the agency's culture or behavior. Both Lipsky's and Brehm Gates' analysis demonstrates that bureaucratic decision-making processes are heavily reliant on two important factors. First bureaucratic decision making is dependent on the way supervisors filter agency policy down to subordinates. Second ... "
