Abstract
This paper examines how the equilibrium in a lake as an ecological ecosystem is directly dependant on the regional hydrological cycle and how, since that cycle is dependant on climate patterns, it is assumed that global warming will have an immediate effect on the lake's physical conditions and, thus, its inhabitants. It explores the Great Lakes system in the eastern United States, which includes thermal niches suitable for the three guilds. In order to get the most accurate prediction, this paper includes parameters, such as depths, water volumes, thermocline depth, and the Great Lakes water chemistry. The main conclusions show that there are three levels of direct effect: 1) thermal niche size changes; 2) changes in growth rate and food consumption; and 3) changes in reproductive success and population size.

Outline
Abstract
Introduction
Research Area
Data Collection
Fish and Thermal Niches
Results
Food Consumption and Growth Rate Changes
Population Response
Ecosystem Response
Impacts of Changes in the Hydrological System on the Habitat
Global Warming Impact on Thermal Niches
Conclusion

From the Paper
"Smallmouth bass communities thrive today in warm niches and are unlikely to be affected in the future global warming conditions. A positive response is predicted for the cool water niche, where a 9-fold increase in yearlings population and a 23-fold increase in the fishable populations are expected. This is in fact a mediocre response, intermediate to influence on cold and warm water niches.
The extended reproductive success and the increase in mature individual numbers are logical, since the growth season is expected to be longer and the winter, when the "winter kill" phenomena (Jackson, 2002) takes place, to be shorter."

Tags:thermal, niches, climate, community, dynamicshydrology