Abstract This paper discusses Mount Vesuvius and its previous eruptions and the ongoing seismic monitoring in the region which is aimed at predicting when the next eruption will take place. The author provides a detailed description of an eruption, and explains that although scientists know what to expect in case of an eruption, it is much harder to forecast when exactly it will take place. Emergency evacuation plans are based on advance notice of several days, but there is a real possibility of a large eruption from Vesuvius with very little advance warning or time to evacuate the region, including the city of Naples. The author concludes that a much more effective plan must be developed and implemented to assure that the public can be moved out in time.
From the Paper "Before the eruption, there were warning signs that were ignored or not correctly interpreted. Seven years before, there had been a major earthquake that had destroyed large parts of the city, which were still being rebuilt when the eruption came. A small earthquake earlier in August had shaken the town, and wells had gone dry. The only written report of an eyewitness came from Pliny the Younger, who saw a cloud of unusual size, a cloud that resembled the umbrella pine tree. This cloud was actually a column of hot gas mixed with tons of rock and ash, reaching skyward to about twenty miles. As the column cooled, it rained down in the form of ash, covering Pompeii. Those remaining behind in the city tried to flee and were often encased in ash as they ran, creating death statues that have been excavated from the ruins."
