The International Future

Term Paper # 101708

International Relations

A discussion of four potential scenarios for the international future of the world, with a focus on China and India.

1,467 words () | 2 sources | MLA | 2008 United States

Paper Summary:

This paper looks at four scenarios - the rise to power of China and India, the persistence of American hyper-power status, the rise of an Islamic Caliphate, and a "cycle of fear" scenario wherein the world becomes noticeably Orwellian and where intrusive security measures are the norm. The paper discusses which one of the four scenarios is most likely to materialize and why and then examines the theoretical assumptions upon which the aforementioned prediction is predicated. The paper concludes that the world of tomorrow promises to be one dominated by the Asian superpowers of China and especially, India.

From the Paper:

"The trends and the implicit/explicit theoretical assumptions guiding this writer to the conclusion that the rise of India and China to pre-eminence is the most likely of all the four scenarios outlined above are numerous but easily explained. Most of all, demographic trends are key. This writer operates under the assumption that the country with the greatest latent human resources will eventually win - even if it initially trails a competitor. Clearly, both nations have this advantage to the fullest. Working especially in India's favor is the fact that this nation has not embarked upon a ruinous "one-child" program as has China; consequently, India's population will not age (is not now aging) as rapidly as China's. Therefore, India will cut into whatever human resources advantage China has by virtue of having a relatively younger and thus more industrious population."

Sample of Sources Used:

Coleman, Joseph. "As Population Declines, Japan Re-thinks Importing Foreign Workers." MiamiHerald.com. 28 Jan. 2007. Herald.com. 11 Feb. 2007 <http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/16555278.htm>
National Intelligence Council (USA). NIC: 2020 Project. National Intelligence Council. Langley, VA: United States National Intelligence Council, 2005.