Russia and the Great Power Conflict

Paper Summary:

As the dragon awakens, the bear, it appears, hibernates. Recently, the flowering of the Red Chinese economy has turned the eyes of Western security wonks eastward. Disquieted by the possibility of a military force built on years of stunning growth rates, American policymakers have sounded increasing alarms about the regional territorial intentions of this new potential hegemony. Whether due to post-Soviet optimism, hyper-power arrogance, or simply inability to hold too many thoughts simultaneously, this paper shows that analysts have drifted away from concerns about Russia as a credible enemy. The paper argues that, despite the obvious decline in Russian military and economic power, it may remain a potential opponent to the West in coming years. In an attempt to understand this possibility, the paper frames Russia today, politically, economically, and militarily, in relation to a variety of contemporary theories on the causes of war. Employing these theories, the paper judges the factors that would seem to make Russia more or less prone to belligerence. Beyond a simple discussion of various hypotheses, the paper sketches some possible scenarios of conflict in the foreseeable future.

From the Paper:

"So how does Russia fit into this equation? It is, at least nominally, in a transition from Communism to democracy. Reality though, as Churchill suggested, is opaque. Putin's state is far from liberal, but has maintained many inherent structural characteristics of a democracy. No serious party leader has articulated any political alternative to democracy, and democratic norms remain pervasive in society at large. The most commonly applied term for the Russian case is "managed democracy." What is worrying is that managed democracy is essentially a bargain. In exchange for promises of economic growth and stability, the masses surrender their rights to question the primacy of the regime."

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