Global Debt Crises

Paper Summary:

Three times in the past two decades we have seen an economic crisis hit developing countries. These were the debt crisis in the 1980s, the Tequila Crisis in 1994-1995, and the Asian Crisis that started in 1997. Each of these had impacts that affected other countries as well. This paper looks at the ways in which such crises start and possible means to determine which countries are susceptible to them. The ways in which this type of crisis spreads is also examined, since it appears that the same methods of determining whether a country might be the source of such a problem can also show if a country is open to contagion in the event a crisis does occur in another country. The paper begins by looking at some of the events involved in the three crises discussed. Only the latest crisis-in Asia-is discussed in detail. The two prevailing hypotheses to explain these events are then discussed with their shortcomings. One interpretation is that the governments are to blame. This outlook claims that the latest crisis-in Asia-is the result of weak government regulations and strong government guarantees. This also leads straight into the moral hazard theory. The other side focuses on economics and claims that fragile markets in the region can allow a crisis in one market to trigger a panic and financial collapse in others. In the case of the Asian crisis this is traced back to Thailand. It is shown that by putting these two hypotheses together, rather than trying to keep them mutually exclusive, a more cohesive picture-and hypothesis-can be created. Information concerning the three crises examined is shown to be more readily explained by using the approaches together rather than separately.

Paper Outline:
Introduction
A Brief Look at Three Debt Crises
A Look at Prevailing Theories and Problems with Them
Tying the Two Approaches Together
Contagion
Conclusion and Comments
Works Cited

From the Paper:

"Financial system reform is another area in which the realms of government and economics are clearly linked. Such reforms are virtually always the result of government action and not due to the efforts of business and industry. In fact, these reforms are often done despite the desires of the various sectors of commerce. The IMF again gives us striking examples of this. The conditions the IMF places on loans frequently require that a government take actions that will affect the economy. That is, in fact, the rationale behind the conditions."

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• Research Paper # 115495 : "Friedrich Engels"

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