Forecasting

Paper Summary:

The paper discusses forecasting, one of the major management functions. The paper examines the benefits of forecasting for companies operating in an ever-changing business environment. The paper discusses how good forecasts help management teams asses risks and develop long-term strategies. The paper focuses on the Delphi method of forecasting, which is a group decision process. The Delphi method is used for environmental, marketing and sales forecasting.

From the Paper:

"Initially, the Delphi method was focused on obtaining a consensus regarding the predictions, similar to the Panel Consensus. Future developments emphasized on structuring and discussing diverse opinions of the preferred future. Discussions and the revelation of good arguments are the primary aim of the present method, rather than focusing on the output. This is the main difference from the method of Panel Consensus. The Delphi method deals with separate views on the probable / preferable future as separate cases, whereas Panel Consensus aims at leveling all opinions to the majority's. The two techniques can work together at different stages of the process. "

Sample of Sources Used:

• Fox, J. (1997), Applied Regression Analysis, Linear Models and Related Methods, London: Sage
• Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. (2002), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, Rpt. On http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/
• Slaughter, R. A. (1995). The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. London: Adamantine Press
• Wikipedia Online Encyclopedia (2006), on http://en.wikipedia.org

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• Analytical Essay # 123774 : "Forecasting and Budgeting"
• Essay # 86476 : "Macroeconomic Forecasting"

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