Econometrics and Deterrence: Does Crime Pay?

Paper Summary:

This paper examines how, in the last quarter century, the U.S. has experienced a drop in both crime rates and arrest rates and how many criminologists have speculated on the reasons for this drop in crime. It shows how Nobel Prize winner, Gary Becker, in his work, ?Crime and Punishment, An Economic Approach,? was the first economist to explain the theory of deterrence as a function of econometrics and how, according to Becker, if the punishment costs the criminal more than the crime benefits the criminal, then the criminal will rationally be deterred from committing the crime. It looks at how, although the Uniform Crime Report and the National Crime Victims Survey support Becker?s economic model of crime, scientists have struggled to prove Becker?s model with sound, empirical research.

From the Paper:

"The deterrence/incapacitation argument is important for legislation such as "three strikes you're out? in which after three convictions a prisoner receives automatic jail time. If deterrence is not a key factor, the threat of incapacitation does not work. By definition, incapacitation is a by-product of deterrence. Without incapacitation, deterrence would not be a workable theory. Levitt concludes in his paper, that incapacitation may imprison the majority of people who would commit crimes no matter what, however, incapacitation without deterrence may make others more likely to commit crimes, who otherwise may have been deterred (Levitt, 370) increasing rather than decreasing arrest rates."

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