Decision-Making Model Analysis

Paper Summary:

The paper compares the 9 step model to the decision tree in terms of advantages and disadvantages, as well as the approach to problems presented. The paper defines what the decision tree is and looks at how, in terms of a managerial or work-related decisions, the decision trees are useful. The decision trees clearly state out different courses of action, as related to different variables and restraints that may appear. The paper looks at the advantages of using a decision tree when making a decision. By comparing the two different models, the paper concludes that the decision tree is actually part of the 9 step model as the 9 step model is more complete in its approach.

From the Paper:

"The decision tree starts with listing the decision that needs to be made , listed at the top of the tree. Each possible solution that can be adopted depending on different variables will form different branches of the decision tree. Each branch may carry its own ramifications, if, for example, each solution brings about new conditional variables (for example, an organization may have to decide on either launching a new product or consolidating the existing one, but launching a new product can be done either through innovation or through purchasing an existing line from a competitor). Each of the branches will have a measurable outcome, evaluated in term of cost, profitability, increase in market share etc. Each outcome will have attached an estimated probability that it will happen. Multiplying the probability with the outcome value for each node will allow us to have, in the end, a final score for each of the possible decisions and numerically evaluate the options."

Sample of Sources Used:

• Decision tree. Wikipedia - the free encyclopedia. On the Internet at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree
• Decision Tree Analysis Choosing Between Options by Projecting Likely Outcomes. Mind Tools

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