Forecasting Terrorism

Paper Summary:

This paper outlines and analyzes the major trends in terrorism in recent years and points out that terrorism has become a global trend. The paper asserts that, given the increasingly global and sophisticated international activities of terrorists, terrorism can be battled only by a united force of nations throughout the world. The paper outlines some possible strategies for fighting terrorism and then discusses psychological vs. strategic/rational choice approaches to analyzing terrorist movements. The paper also describes the organizational patterns of terrorist groups and concludes that, to fight terrorism, nations must put aside petty disagreements and self-interest and focus instead on combating the threat posed by terrorism.

Outline:
Major Trends in Terrorism in Recent Years
Psychological vs. Strategic/Rational Choice Approaches to Analyzing Terrorist Movements
Major Organizational Patterns of Terrorist Groups

From the Paper:

"Currently, this has changed to focus on micro-actors that can create great destruction with the use of technology. It is no longer necessary for terrorists to gather large amounts of manpower, or even to be on the premises of their target in order to create their projected destruction. Indeed, this can now be done by the push of a button, and frighteningly, terrorists are becoming increasingly good at this.
"In response to the new paradigm of terrorist threat, the United States began to focus its defense efforts upon terrorists whose striking capability has global reach. This resulted in creating a military strategy that adhered to a capabilities rather than a threat-based approach. This means that defense professionals would concentrate on how the enemy might strike rather than who the enemy is, because the latter has become increasingly difficult to determine."

Sample of Sources Used:

• Caplan, Bryan. (2005, May). Terrorism: The relevance of the rational choice model. Fairfax, VA: George Mason University. http://cipp.gmu.edu/archive/Relevance-of-the-Rational-Choice-Model-Caplan.pdf
• Emery, Norman, Werchan, Jason & Mowles, Donald G Jr. (2005, Jan-Feb). Fighting terrorism and insurgency: shaping the information environment. Military Review http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_1_85/ai_n13821821
• Lavrov, Sergey V. (2004, Jun-Aug). Building a collective response to terrorism. UN Chronicle. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1309/is_2_41/ai_n6234392
• Perl, Raphael (2006, July 21). Trends in Terrorism, 2006. CRS Report for Congress. fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/69479.pdf
• Tuohy, Cyril (2005, Dec). The changing face of terror. Risk and Insurance. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BJK/is_15_16/ai_n15930134

More papers on Forecasting Terrorism:

• Analytical Essay # 137067 : "Forecasting Terrorism"
• Essay # 59387 : "Terrorist Group to Political Party"
• Research Paper # 48709 : "Computer Security and Forensics"

APA Citation:

MLA Citation: