The Markets and Football

Paper Summary:

In this paper the author examines the market efficiencies that can be seen in the national football league. In particular, he looks at the wagering systems that are used. He examines a few case studies, and uses these to try and explain how the odds and efficiencies of the markets are determined. He especially relates all of his points to wagering on football games, looking at all of the elements which will add to efficiencies of betting. Further to this, the author looks at the stock market, taking certain examples to emphasize his discussions. In conclusion, the author summarizes the two main theories of market efficiencies, the random walk theory and select strategies.
Table of Contents
Efficiency and Football Wagering
Additional Evidence of Inefficiency
From Bachelier to Bookmakers

From the Paper:

"After noting that totals bets tend to attract more attention when two high-scoring teams are playing each other, Paul and Weinbach point out that "rooting for scoring tends to be easier than cheering for a lack of scoring." With these two factors in mind, the authors theorize that bettor psychology may push totals too high, making the "under" a consistently profitable wager. To test this hypothesis, Paul and Weinbach examine the entire sample of NFL totals from 1979 to 2000. And as the table below indicates, the under indeed won with a frequency that calls the efficiency of the totals market into question - particularly in games where the total was significantly higher than average."

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