Examines process of decision making about probable future occurrences based on objective data & subjective insight, using Bayesian statical analysis.
Written in 1997; 2,250 words; 8 sources; $ 79.95
From the Paper:
"INTUITION, EXPERIENCE, AND QUANTITATIVE DECISION-MAKING
Introduction
Quantitative decision-making is thought of most often as an objective exercise based only on the cold analysis of verifiable hard facts. Intuition and even experience tends to be excluded from quantitative decision-making on the grounds that such information is subjective in character, and, thus, has no role in quantitative analysis.
Quantitative decision-making is based in large part on the ability of decision-makers to make inferences about the probabilities of occurrence of future events from the analyses of objective data (Markowitz and Xu 60-69). One means of improving probability estimates in such predictions, however, is the application of Bayes? Theorem (Peebles 17-19). Classical .."
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