GDP Forecast for 2002

Paper Summary:

The components of the GDP are analyzed for their contribution to the estimated results. These include consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. The paper examines all these facts and concludes that the U.S. economy is not on the road of recovery anytime soon and that unless there is an increased level of consumption as well as exports, the likelihood of a higher GDP is dim.

From the Paper:

"One of the largest components of GDP, consumption depends largely on how the masses consume and the price index. In the last few months it could be seen that due to the energy crises, consumption of non-durable goods have slowed down. Producer indicates high price inflation which have gained as much as 1 percent in March, 2002. The rising price of energy which increased by 5.5 percent have resulted in approximately an increase in crude price upto 43%. As a result of this Economists at Bear Stearns predict that consumer price inflation will rise upto 1.5 percent for the year 2002 from 1.1 in 2001 [Bandur, April 2002]."

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