Fighting the Incumbency Factor

Paper Summary:

This paper states that unseating an incumbent is difficult but not impossible. This paper outlines that if a challenger can develop an effective message, raise a sizable amount of money and develop a strong grassroots operation, then a challenger can minimize or overcome the advantages of the incumbent factor. The author believes that most districts are winnable for challenger candidates if they develop the right type of campaign around these factors and remain on message.

From the Paper:

"The first aspect in creating an effective message is polling. During the 1998 Wisconsin Senatorial election, challenger Congressman Mark Neumann (R-WI) found though polling that he could be competitive against incumbent Russ Feingold (D-WI) if he based his campaign message on strong convictions on issues. "Neumann's pollster . . . noted that, "When we asked voters to name accomplishments by Feingold, very few could name even one. Those who could usually named campaign finance, which is not the kind of issue that gets voters out of bed and to the polls."" Early polls had Neumann trailed by 10 to 26 points; he eventually lost 48.4% to 50.6%, because he forced the campaign to focus on issues. Most Wisconsinites respected Neumann's stances although they did not agree with them."

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