Business Cycles and Interest Rates

Paper Summary:

The paper discusses the lack of uniformity in international business cycles. It also examines the way the use and prevalence of business cycles has given rise to the practice of short-term and long-term economic forecasting. The paper looks at whether the fluctuation of interest rates is a result of or one of the contributing factors to a business cycle.

From the Paper:

"Until the 1970s, it was widely accepted that the American economy passed through business cycles. Such cycles were characterized by expansion and contraction phases, and conventional wisdom held that such cycles differed in the length of the cycle, but not in the existence of the cycle overall. From 1854 to the mid-1960s, analysts generally considered that business cycles varied in length from between one and eight years, with the most common length being three years and the average length being four (Balasko & Ghiglino, 1995, p. 566)."

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