This paper explores the differences between prediction markets and supply and demand models.
Written in 2008; 1,771 words; 6 sources; APA; $ 57.95
Paper Summary:
The paper examines prediction markets and prediction market characteristics in order to compare them to supply and demand concepts in terms of market forecasting. The paper discusses monopolistic markets in order to better develop the comparison between prediction markets and traditional supply and demand models. The paper concludes by explaining how prediction markets have certain inherent characteristics that make them attractive as alternatives to traditional macroeconomic theory.
Outline:
Background Context
Reflection on Standard Supply & Demand
Discussion & Conclusions
From the Paper:
"Prediction markets are a fairly novel concept that has been borne out of the new economy but, in one respect or another, they have existed in some fashion throughout history. Prediction markets are sometimes known as information markets, idea markets or concept futures, or even event futures and are based on open markets wherein market participants trade in contracts that are valued according to the likelihood of future events (Ho & Chen, 2007). Currently, the most predominantly recognized prediction markets relate to general elections where traders market contracts that pay a certain amount if a given candidate wins or loses. However, a prediction market can be developed in relation to any commodity or financial device."
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