Forecasting of an Application

Paper Summary:

In this article, the writer first discusses what is meant by the 'forecasting' of an application. The writer then examines how useful this is today. Further, the writer discusses which are the organizations that use the method of forecasting in their applications and looks at the more popular methods of forecasting today. In this paper, the writer discusses linear regression,the Delphi Forecasting method, technological forecasting and the time series forecasting method. The writer notes that exponential smoothing is one of the best forecasting methods used today, perhaps because of its innate simplicity and lack of complexity.

From the Paper:

"Linear regression is the method wherein a straight line is calculated with a simple method, while in the exponential function, an increasing or a decreasing curve is used. Some of the 'smoothing' methods are the 'moving average' and the 'double moving average'. While the moving average method attempts to smooth out past data by averaging the past periods and using that data to project the view forwards, the 'double moving average' uses the moving average calculations twice. The seasonal method uses past data again, but in a deseasonalized version, and this data is used to apply seasonal effects on the forecasting. Winter's additive and the winter's multiplicative are the two methods of seasonal smoothing methods."

Sample of Sources Used:

• Armstrong, Jon Scott. (2001) "Principles of forecasting: a Handbook for Researchers and practitioners" Springer.
• Evans, J. (2002) "Practical Business Forecasting" Blackwell Publishing.
• "Forecasting methods used in Ez Forecaster" Retrieved From http://www.ezforecaster.com/fcmethod.htm Accessed 3 March, 2006
• "Forecasting Recommendations for Shop-A-Lotta" (9 November, 2004) Retrieved Fromhttp://www.personal.psu.edu/users/j/d/jds436/files/project2-01-07.doc Accessed 3 March, 2006
• Kodama, Fumio. (1995) "Emerging Patterns of Innovation, sources of Japan's technological edge" Harvard Business School Press.

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