Forecasting Methods

Paper Summary:

The purpose of this paper is to discuss forecasting methods that are used in commercial business. Competition for consumers is high and in order for businesses to survive, they all have to consider what products are needed, where and when they are needed as well as in what quantities. It looks at how a successful forecasting strategy requires selecting the appropriate forecasting technique and compares and in particular contrasts forecasting methods as they relate to an organization called United Parcel Service. It looks at how there are three types of forecasting to predict demand: judgment methods, time series analysis and causal methods.
Outline
Abstract
Introduction
Judgment Methods
Time Series Analysis
Causal Methods
Conclusion

From the Paper:

"Judgment methods can be defined as tools that use opinions to develop forecasts without reference to any available historical data. The basis for judgment methods is to utilize decision-makers that have sufficient experience to establish forecasts. This is a low cost method that has rapid development time. However, it is not consistently accurate and subject to bias. The judgment method would not work at the UPS billing site. Most of the forecasting is based on previous numbers and historical data collected as far back as two years ago. Plans for staffing, potential growth, and volume production are weighed in comparison with these same factors in previous years of operation especially during
their consolidation processes. "

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