Crime and the Economy

Compares the economic forecasts presented by several different financial institutions and shows how these forecasts are linked to the issue of crime levels.

1,313 words () | 8 sources | MLA | 2003 United States

Paper Summary:

This paper compares and contrasts the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by different financial institutions, investment firms or other recognized forecasting groups including: Macro Dev, The Governors Economic Advisory Council (Ohio), Global Insight, the Virginia Department of Planning and Budget, BMO Nesbit Burns, The University of Michigan Department of Economics and the Conference Group. Specifically, this essay looks at each group's predictions for unemployment, real GDP and inflation in 2003 and 2004, while also looking at projections of housing starts and unemployment growth from some of these indices for 2003 and 2004. This essay also discusses how the results of these national forecasts will affect operations or planning for the Saint Joseph County Prosecutors Office in the State of Indiana, over the next two years. Because the economy can have a significant impact on crime levels in local jurisdictions, remaining aware of future economic indicators is a key part of being able to forecast future needs for prosecutors and other court resources.

From the Paper:

"These groups predict that inflation will be between 1.4% to 2.3% in 2003 and from 1.7% to 2.8% in 2004. The groups are divided as to whether inflation will be higher in 2003 in comparison to 2004. All of these groups predict modest inflation rates in 2003 and 2004, all less than the predict growth rate of real GDP for those years. This suggests that if our budgetary increases match real GDP growth and the goods we purchase grow at the same rate of projected inflation, we will see modest increases in our purchasing power in both 2003 and 2004, allowing us to combat crime even more effectively and efficiently than we can in our current environment."