Abstract This paper consists of calculating expected payoffs; deciding among alternatives; identifying information required for a Bayesian probability analysis; and recommending an additional information development strategy.
From the Paper "INTUITION, EXPERIENCE, AND QUANTITATIVE DECISION-MAKING
Introduction
Quantitative decision-making is thought of most often as an objective exercise based only on the cold analysis of verifiable hard facts. Intuition and even experience tends to be excluded from quantitative decision-making on the grounds that such information is subjective in character, and, thus, has no role in quantitative analysis.
Quantitative decision-making is based in large part on the ability of decision-makers to make inferences about the probabilities of occurrence of future events from the analyses of objective data (Markowitz and Xu 60-69). One means of improving probability estimates in such predictions, however, is the application of Bayes? Theorem (Peebles 17-19). Classical .."
Abstract This study develops reliable data that fire safety and security management professionals can use in the development of models for smoke detector types and placement in high-bay hangar facilities. Two research questions are investigated in this paper and hypotheses are tested in relation to each research question. The research questions investigated were as follows:
1. What effect does bay height have on smoke detector sensitivity in a high-bay hangar?
2. What effect does the use of a draft curtain have on smoke detector sensitivity in a high-bay hangar?
Each of the hypotheses is supported by the analysis of the data. The results of the research performed for this study show that, as bay height increases (all other factors remaining equal), smoke detector sensitivity decreases. The results of the research performed for this study further show that smoke detector sensitivity is higher when draft curtains are in place than when draft curtains are not in place.
Based on these findings, the paper concludes that the use of draft curtains should be mandated in all high-bay hangars. It concludes, further, that means should be found to deploy smoke detectors at levels lower than ceiling height in bays higher than 15 meters.
Table of Contents:
Introduction
Statement of the Problem
Research Questions
Purpose of the Study
Definitions of Terms
Overview of the Remainder of the Study
Review of Literature
Theoretical Framework
Waveform Analysis
Systems Theory
Related Research
Methodology
Research Design
Research Questions and Hypotheses
Variables and Operational Definitions
Data Collection Procedures
Data Analysis
Findings
Results of Testing hypothesis One
Results of Testing hypothesis Two
Summary and Conclusions
Summary of the Results
Conclusions
References
From the Paper "A total of 33 full-scale fire experiments were conducted in two high-bay hangars. The two high-bay hangars were of different heights, thereby allowing the effects of height on smoke detector sensitivity to be measured and assessed. Draft curtains were used in some experiments but not in others. This approach allowed the effects of the use of draft curtains on smoke detector sensitivity to be measured and assessed. Varying fire sizes were used in the experiments."
