An examination of the predicted outcome of the Cuban missile crisis using the policy forecaster model and whether these correlate to the actual outcome of events.
Written in 2008; 1,171 words; 2 sources; MLA; $ 40.95
Paper Summary:
This paper discusses the Cuban missile crisis and explains that the discovery by surveillance planes of Soviet missile silos being built in Cuba was one of the major confrontations of the Cold War. The paper analyzes the Cuban missile crisis with the use of the policy forecaster model. It then looks at the predicted outcome using the policy forecaster model and whether it corresponds with the actual outcome of events.
From the Paper:
"The next variable that I will discuss is that of salience. The United States had a high salience regarding the Cuban Missile Crisis. Almost immediately following the discovery of the Soviet missiles in Cuba, it became the most pressing issue to the country. The Cuban Missile Crisis was of great importance to every actor involved, and even those not involved, as a wrong move could have triggered a chain reaction of nuclear attacks. I believe that the issue was of added importance to the US because of the closeness of Cuba to the mainland. The issue was also of high importance to the Soviet Union, as the United States already had missile bases located close to their border. At the time, the US held the advantage over the Soviets in most areas. The salience variables I will use for the Policy Forecaster are ninety for the United States, and eighty-three for the Soviet Union."
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