Paper Summary:

This paper explores the game theory in international politics by analyzing a diplomatic mind game between the president of the United States, George W. Bush and the leader of Taiwan, Chen Shui-Bian. The paper demonstrates how the result from solving the game coincides with the final outcome of the situation The author also discusses, in depth, some of the external factors that affect the payoff for both sides. The paper uses online sources only.

Outline:
The Broad Picture
The Background and History
The Game Tree
Analysis
References

From the Paper:

"The period between 1979 and 2000 is rather uneventful with only occasional tension between China and the US. China, US and Taiwan are fairly comfortable with the status quo - although the then leader of Taiwan, Lee, made several radical speeches that irritated China. Taiwan acted largely according to the will of the US and kept the US fairly happy regarding the situation. However, things went for a sharp turn after 2000 when the current leader, Chen, was elected for the leadership role in Taiwan and largely disregarded the feeling of the US. There were some instances that angered Washington like Chen's holding a referendum during Taiwan's 2004 "Presidential" election, an act that provoked China; Chen ignored protests from Washington. Chen also broke his own pledge and dismantled a symbolic government agency in charge of reunification with mainland China. After a series of events, even Bush - who has given Taiwan an unprecedented level of military and diplomatic support since 2001, cannot stand Chen and decides to punish him a little when Chen is conducting his "transit diplomacy" en route to Paraguay in 2006. "

Sample of Sources Used:

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
• http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=18337&prog=zc
• http://www.ait.org.tw/en/about_ait/tra/
• http://usinfo.state.gov/eap/Archive_Index/joint_communique_1972.html
• http://usinfo.state.gov/eap/Archive_Index/joint_communique_1979.html

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