Hurricane Forecasting

Paper Summary:

The paper looks at the role of observation in hurricane forecasting by satellites ships, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft, radiosondes and radar. The paper then relates that scientists use complicated computer models to chart the storm's intensity and progress and issue warnings to the public. The paper discusses the prediction models available and shows how it is extremely difficult to forecast hurricanes totally correctly throughout the hurricane season, since there are still too many variables in gathering and analyzing the data that is available.

From the Paper:

"Observation is the first element of hurricane forecasting, and it includes several methods of observing and tracking hurricanes and tropical storms that could develop into hurricanes. Observation begins when the predicted storms are far away from land and still far out to sea (all hurricanes form over oceans). The first method of observation is satellites, or the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These satellites are used to provide a wide variety of data on the forming hurricanes, such as "location, size, movement, and intensity of a storm, and analyze its surrounding environment" ("Observations"). In addition, the satellites emit radiation that reflects from the atmosphere, which allows the satellite to measure moisture, winds, atmospheric temperature, and cloud cover of the storm. All of this data is transmitted to the NHC, where it is analyzed."

Sample of Sources Used:

• Editors. "Forecast Process." National Hurricane Center. 2008. 29 March 2008.<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/forecast_process.shtml>
• Editors. "Hurricane Models." National Hurricane Center. 2008. 29 March 2008.<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/basics/models.shtml>
• Editors. "Observations." National Hurricane Center. 2008. 29 March 2008.<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/forecast/observations.shtml>
• Klotzbach, Philip J. and Gray, William M. "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008." 2007. 29 March 2008.<http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2007/dec2007/dec2007.pdf>

More papers on Hurricane Forecasting:

• Term Paper # 94278 : "Hurricanes Katrina and Rita"
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• Essay # 57269 : "The National Weather Service"

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